SINGAPORE — Around 200 of the world’s nations are having trouble coming to a consensus regarding whether or not humanity should phase out the use of fossil fuels, with ongoing discussions at the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) running overtime on Tuesday afternoon (Dec 12).

The discussions taking place in Dubai were initially scheduled to end at around 3pm Singapore time on Tuesday but as of 6.30pm, nations were still arguing over the language to be used in an agreement known as the Global Stocktake.

While the European Union and several developing countries vulnerable to the effects of climate change have urged a global “phase out” of fossil fuels, there is strong opposition from oil-producing nations such as Saudi Arabia and Russia.

The term “phase out” of fossil fuels had been included as an option in an earlier draft agreement of the Global Stocktake, but the latest proposal had left it out, drawing criticism from environmentalists and several European countries, whose representatives said that they are prepared for prolonged negotiations.

Other countries pushing for a phasing out of fossil fuel usage include the United States, with its representative saying that the agreement's language needs to be "substantially strengthened”.

The representative from Marshall Islands, one of the most vulnerable nations to climate change, said that the country would essentially be signing its "death warrant" if it agrees to the proposal in its current form.

What exactly is this Global Stocktake and what would it do to combat climate change? Why is there so much disagreement over it?

WHAT IS THE GLOBAL STOCKTAKE?

The Global Stocktake is meant to be a comprehensive assessment of climate change progress since the 2015 Paris Agreement.

It is scheduled to happen every five years, with the objective of coordinating the world’s efforts on climate action. This provides countries with guidelines for their future climate action plans.

The ongoing discussions came soon after the United Nations (UN) warned in a report on Sept 8 that “the world is not on track to meet the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement”.

The UN added that there is “a rapidly narrowing window to raise ambition and implement existing commitments” to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Representatives of the 198 nations in Dubai are now seeking a consensus on the way forward in the form of an official stocktake “text” to remedy the shortcomings outlined in the report.

This is why climate experts and activists believe that the ongoing negotiations are crucial in determining the fate of the world.

WHAT IS THE LATEST ON THE STOCKTAKE DRAFT?

On Monday afternoon, Sultan Al Jaber, president of COP28 and the minister of industry and advanced technology of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), released a new draft of the stocktake focused on reducing the production and consumption of oil, gas and coal, as opposed to the “phase-out” that was called for in an earlier draft.

The latest draft of the 21-page text does not demand action on fossil fuels, but presents measures that nations "could" take, and some nations have taken issue with this.

Canada’s minister of environment and climate change Steven Guilbeault said: “This is not a menu in a restaurant. We have to do all of these things.”

France's minister for energy transition Agnes Pannier-Runacher said that the text was “insufficient” and that there were elements that were “not acceptable as they are”.

Getting all 198 nations to come to an agreement will not be an easy feat.

British newspaper The Guardian reported on Monday that more than 100 countries including the world’s small island states have indicated that they want an unconditional phase-out of fossil fuels.

However, nations such as Saudi Arabia and Russia that are heavily reliant on fossil fuels for energy and economic growth are hesitant to commit to such a goal.

There are also some developing nations that are worried about the financial burden of transiting to a zero-fossil fuel economy and are calling for more financial support.

These countries that are wary of a total phase-out of fossil fuels want the Global Stocktake to allow for the continued, though decreasing, use of fossil fuels.

HAS COP28 ACHIEVED ANYTHING AT ALL?

The knotty discussions over the Global Stocktake notwithstanding, COP28 has led to a few small wins for climate action.

On Nov 30, the first day of the conference, nearly 200 countries agreed to establish a Loss and Damage Fund to help vulnerable countries facing the worst impacts of climate change.

So far, countries have pledged to contribute around US$700 million (S$940 million) to the fund. Both Italy and France pledged the highest amounts at US$108 million, followed by the US$100 million promised by Germany and the UAE.

Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States also chipped in with smaller amounts.

The agreement was reportedly met with a standing ovation from delegates, but there are concerns among climate groups that the US$700 million currently pledged will be insufficient.

Mr Harjeet Singh of Climate Action Network International, a coalition of almost 2,000 climate groups, criticised the combined pledges, saying that they “pale in comparison” to the actual need for funding, which is estimated to be hundreds of billions yearly.

Then, on Monday, it was announced that Azerbaijan and Brazil would be the hosts of the United Nations’ climate talks in 2024 and 2025 respectively.

Azerbaijan's economy is heavily reliant on oil and gas exports, and Brazil is one of the world’s top 10 oil producers.

News agency Reuters reported that some delegates had raised concerns about holding the world's climate negotiations yet again in oil-producing nations.

However, a representative from Azerbaijan’s ministry of foreign affairs said of the country’s plans to diversify its energy sources to include more wind and solar power, while Brazil’s president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva separately vowed to achieve zero deforestation by 2023.